Odisha cyclone update: ECMWF and GFS model gives major predictions about Cyclone ‘Arnab’. Landfall likely near Andhra coast on October 28.
New Odisha cyclone update says to be alert for possible cyclone Arnab in the Bay of Bengal. Two major weather models, ECMWF and GFS, have shown different pictures regarding the path of the storm and landfall. However, according to the estimates of both the models, the storm is likely to affect the north Andhra Pradesh coast on the October 28.
According to the latest model visualization available on Windy, the European weather model ECMWF has indicated that the eye of the storm will be near the coast south of Visakhapatnam by 12:00 am on Wednesday, October 28.
At this time, as the center of the storm approaches the coast, the wind speed may be high in Visakhapatnam and its southern areas. On the other hand, the American weather model GFS has made different estimates.
According to this model, the eye of the cyclone Arnab will have entered the land by the afternoon of the October 28 and reached the area near Vijayawada. That is, compared to the ECMWF, the GFS model shows the path of the cyclone more southerly. There is also a lot of talk about the possibility of landfall in the coastal area between Kakinada and Machilipatnam.
Meanwhile, according to the estimates of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this weather system may take the form of a cyclone in the west-central Bay of Bengal by the morning of the October 26.
After that, it is likely to reach the coast of north Andhra Pradesh and adjacent south Odisha by the morning of the October 28.
Under the influence of the cyclone, winds may blow at a speed of 70 to 80 kilometers per hour in the west-central Bay of Bengal from the October 26. The gusty wind speed may reach 90 kilometers per hour. There is also a possibility of the cyclone strengthening further as it approaches the coast.
Very heavy rainfall is likely to occur in some parts of North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, especially on the October 28. More than 20 cm of rainfall is expected in some areas in 24 hours. Fishermen have been advised not to venture into dangerous sea areas from October 28 to October 29 as the sea is likely to remain rough.
However, the exact landfall location of the cyclone and its intensity when it hits the land are still not clear. The high pressure area to the north of the cyclone is affecting its path. Current model estimates indicate possible impacts from Visakhapatnam to Kakinada and Machilipatnam coasts. On the other hand, winds and heavy rainfall may also affect South Odisha.
Also Read: Cyclone threat to Odisha! Different weather models give various predictions
