Cyclone in Odisha! Cyclonic circulation active near west-central Bay of Bengal, says IMD. According to the India Meteorological Department’s marine weather bulletin, a cyclonic circulation is active near the west-central Bay of Bengal and the south Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu coasts.
The system has spread up to a height of about 7.6 km above sea level. Under its influence, there may be heavy rainfall along with rain and thunderstorms at some places in the west-central Bay of Bengal. But the IMD has not issued any cyclone in Odisha warning yet!
On the other hand, private weather agency Skymet, in its analysis published on October 9, said that there is no sign of any major weather system in the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea till October 23.
The agency had predicted that the first cyclone could form by the end of the month or in November. In another analysis on October 15, Skymet said that the northeast monsoon is likely to be active in South India, leading to increased rainfall in some parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andhra Pradesh.
The rains are likely to continue between October 20 to October 24, with a break in rainfall activity in the last week. There is also a discussion on the forecasts of international weather models like the US’s GFS and Europe’s ECMWF.
However, no reliable combined signal of a strong cyclone in Odisha yet. The long-term forecast of a weather model can change over time. We will have to wait for the next official forecast from IMD. There is not enough evidence to say right now that a severe cyclone is likely to hit Odisha by the end of October.
