Low pressure likely in Bay of Bengal on October 24. Another cyclone in Odisha in the offing but there is varied prediction. A new low pressure may form in Bay of Bengal. A cyclone is likely to develop in the Andaman Sea tomorrow and a low pressure area is likely to form in the southeast Bay of Bengal by October 24.
However, it is still uncertain whether it will later develop into a cyclone or it will be just a depression. Different weather models are giving different signals regarding its intensity and path.
According to the Tropical Weather Outlook of the India Meteorological Department dated October 19, there is an upper atmosphere cyclone in the Gulf of Thailand and its surrounding areas. It may enter the Andaman Sea area by tomorrow. Later, there is a sign of a low pressure area forming in the southeast Bay of Bengal by October 24.
On the other hand, a cyclonic circulation is also active in the southwest Bay of Bengal near the north Tamil Nadu coast.
So far, the IMD has not given any definite forecast for the formation of a cyclone in the Bay of Bengal.
Regarding the possible weather system in the Bay of Bengal, the European Weather Model ECMWF and some other AI-based models are showing signs of strengthening to a depression or deep depression.
Some models have shown signs of the possible weather system moving towards the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coasts. Some models are showing a path towards the north Bay of Bengal and Bangladesh.
On the other hand, IMD GFS (Global Forecast System) and some other models are showing signs of it remaining as a relatively weak weather system. Different model runs of NCEP GFS are also showing changes in time and track.
Therefore, it is not right to say that there will be a cyclone in Odisha will be experienced from now on based on the forecast of only one model. According to the current estimates, there is no definite sign of cyclone danger for Odisha.
However, if the low pressure forms, more clarity will be available on its track, intensity and possible rainfall impact. Especially between October 24 and 26, the profile of the weather system is expected to be clearer. However, it is important to keep an eye on the latest bulletins and warnings of the Meteorological Department.
