Will the low pressure system develop into a cyclone in Odisha? There is a lot of talk about a possible low pressure system in the Bay of Bengal and a likely cyclone in Odisha.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), a low pressure system is likely to form in the southeast and adjacent central Bay of Bengal by October 23, that is tomorrow.
Later, it is likely to move northwestwards and intensify further. So the most important thing is that the IMD has not yet definitely predicted that this system will develop into a cyclone in Odisha.
However, different weather models are showing different possibilities. The US GFS model is indicating that it will reach cyclone level by October 24
while the European ECMWF model is indicating that it may strengthen between October 26 and October 27.
Similarly, the IMD-GFS model is showing the possibility of cyclone level by October 28. There is also disagreement among the models regarding the track.
Most models show the system moving towards North Andhra Pradesh and adjoining South Odisha coast. Some models are showing a possibility of landfall by October 28. Some other models show a move towards West Bengal and Bangladesh.
That is, it is not possible to say for sure where the cyclone will make landfall from now on. Windy dot com’s ECMWF model also shows an organized system south of Visakhapatnam on the night of October 26.
However, this is just a model estimate, not an official cyclone declaration. Once the low pressure is formed, a clearer picture will be available regarding its intensity, path and possible landfall.
